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UK - Interest Rate up - Bank Governor Speaks and £ falls - Brexit Uncertainty Worsens
In what, on the surface at least, looked like a relatively positive rate hike from the BoE – with a 9-0 vote, upgrade to the UK GDP growth outlook and estimate of the neutral rate at a higher-than-expected 2-3% range – GBP found little support. The currency came under significant pressure as the market instead preoccupied itself with Carney’s comments that gradual rate rises will be more of a ‘walk’ than a ‘run’ and possibly highlighted its still sensitive stance towards political/Brexit risks.

Earlier this morning on a BBC Radio interview, BoE Governor Mark Carney said a disorderly Brexit is “highly undesirable.” The pound weakened below $1.30 as he spoke and was down 0.3 percent at $1.2982 as of 8:56 a.m. The interview suggests the Bank of England governor is growing increasingly worried that Prime Minister Theresa May’s government is running out of time to hammer out an agreement that will prevent disruption to business, trade and consumers. The central bank has previously drawn criticism for being too forthright in its comments and predictions surrounding Brexit, which anti-EU lawmakers see as being overly gloomy.

In a sign of the pressure on UK PM May, she cut short a holiday to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron today. It’s part of her diplomatic drive to win European leaders over with just 11 weeks until a divorce accord is meant to be signed.

More hurt for GBP came in the form of UK economic data released at 9:30am this morning. We had Services Data for the month of July which showed a drop from last months reading. Its difficult to see where Sterling will find support from if economic data continues to weaken. Brexit comments/updates will be the main factor moving Sterling exchange rates with the month of October becoming increasingly more and more important.

Source: Excel Currencies .

Aug 2018


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